Chasing a flush on the web – Sometimes the numbers just don’t add up!
There is an age old debate in poker – must you chase a flush? 1st of all we need to define what we imply here by "chasing a flush on the internet."
Chasing anything in Hold em poker is the practice of betting to stay in a palm in the hope that you simply will generate a much better hand, even while you may possibly have absolutely nothing in the time. So chasing a flush indicates wagering which you will obtain the card or card that you have to complete your flush hands around the turn or river. You can’t chase a flush prior to the flop because at that time you only have 2 cards so the flush isn’t on.
So let’s say you’re betting one of the huge poker sites on line, you’ve been dealt the Ace and 9 of spades and you’ve paid to see the flop.
The flop is twos 7 spades Kd and one of your opponents comes out gambling strongly with a fair sized raise, what do you do?
Initially of all ask yourself what variety of hand you’re up against. The possibilities are triples, a different flush draw, a pair of Kings or a complete bluff, so as it stands you happen to be only succeeding against the bluff with your Ace. On the other palm in case you hit a spade in the last two cards you have the nut flush and could only lose to a full house or 4 of a kind.
Within the face of it you could possibly assume that statistically you may have about a fifty – fifty opportunity of hitting your spade, after all there’s two cards to come and four suits so there must be about a half probability, proper?
Wrong!
You already have two of the spades in your palm and there is yet another two showing about the table, so you know 5 cards and 4 of them are spades. That signifies you have nine spades left readily available out of the forty seven cards you have not seen, which is only a forty two per-cent opportunity of catching your flush.
In the event you do wager within the turn and don’t generate your flush, what do you do then? You may have possibly now become pot-committed, you’ve got put so much into the pot which you may well as properly bet again around the river unless there’s a large raise or all-in against you, but now your odds of creating the flush have dropped dramatically to only twenty one percent.
But what of that other factor, the mysterious net poker syndrome? What I imply by that’s while you statistically have a forty two per cent probability of creating a flush, is that what in fact occurs in reality? Should you played the same hands in the same web-based poker table one hundred instances would you get a flush 42 times? From my personal experience I doubt it. Flushes seem to arrive around a lot much less often than forty two out of 100 instances!
That is just my own opinion and I’m sure the poker internet sites would tell you a various story, but the way I see it’s forty two percent may be the very Ideal you’re ever going to acquire and you may effectively have lots much less likelihood than that of hitting your flush.
Bottom line? Chasing a flush on the net is really a really risky strategy that sucks you in and over commits you, without giving you enough of a chance of pulling out the winning hand.